7/20 Update: The official Madden NFL 16 rookies ratings have been announced! They can be found here.
With the Madden 16 ratings reveal roughly a month away, we wanted to predict how incoming rookies will be rated in the new game. This is more than just some guy sitting behind a computer guessing at ratings. This is 100% math based.
Rookie ratings for speed, acceleration, strength, and agility have typically been based on Combine or Pro Day results. Based on a player’s position, we adjusted the ratings up or down. For example, a wide receiver who does 20 bench reps is rated differently than an offensive tackle who does 20 bench reps.
We developed a simple mathematical model to predict ratings based on NFL Combine results adjusted for position. In the past, rookie ratings for speed, acceleration, agility, and strength were based on those results. So we assumed that this year would be the same as the past 2 years.
When possible we used the actual Combine measures, but if a player did not participate in a drill at the Combine and we found a Pro Day measurement we used that instead. Because we want to be as data-driven as possible, we left ratings blank for players who either did not participate in a specific drill or for players whose results could not be found.
We cannot project non physical ratings (like awareness or throw accuracy) because those ratings are more likely rated based on game tape that we do not have access to.
Disclaimer: We have no inside knowledge of actual Madden NFL 16 rookie ratings nor do we know that speed, acceleration, agility, and strength will be measured the same way this year.
Are our predictions too high? Too low? Let us know what you think your favorite players ratings should be in the comments section below.